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In preparation: ​

Wu, X., A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, B. G. Reichl, and F. Lu, 2024: Understanding the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias via hierarchical coupled modeling, in preparation.


Lawman, A., C. Sun, X. Wu, et al. 2024: Tropical rainfall changes in response to a weaker AMOC: Mechanisms and an integrative model-data comparison for Heinrich Stadial 1, under internal review by co-authors.

Submitted or under review: ​

Wu, X, S. G. Yeager, C. Deser, A. Capotondi, A. T. Wittenberg, and M. J. McPhaden, 2024: High predictability of Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability dominated by oceanic Rossby waves, submitted.

DiNezio, P. N., T. Shanahan, T. Sun, C. Sun, X. Wu, A. Lawman, D. Lea, and M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, M. Prange, B. Otto-Bliesner, and X. Zhang, 2023: The tropical response to ocean circulation collapse, under review.



10. Bilbao, R., P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, L. Hermanson, P. Athanasiadis, R. Eade, M. Devilliers, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, A.-C. Ho, W. Merryfield, J. Mignot, D. Nicolì, M. Samsó, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, X. Wu, and S. Yeager, 2023: Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysisEarth Syst. Dynam. 15, 501–525


9. Wu, X., 2023: Long La Niña events could rise in frequency as the planet warms. Nature, 619, 702–703, (Invited commentary, not peer-reviewed)

    Open access to this article via the SharedIt link:


8. Wu, X., S. G. Yeager, C. Deser, N. Rosenbloom, and G. A. Meehl, 2023: Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific. Science Advances

7. Maher, N., R. C. J. Wills, P. N. DiNezio, J. Klavans, S. Milinsk, S. C. Sanchez, S. Stevenson, M. F. Stuecker, and X. Wu, 2023: The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences, Earth Syst. Dynam. 14, 413–431,


6. Yeager, S. G., N. Rosenbloom, A. A. Glanville, X. Wu, I. Simpson, H. Li, M. J. Molina, K. Krumhardt, S. Mogen, K. Lindsay, D. Lombardozzi, W. Weider, W. M. Kim, J. H. Richter, M. Long, G. Danabasoglu, D. Bailey, M. Holland, N. Lovenduski, W. G. Strand, and T. King, 2022:  The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) Prediction System using the Community Earth System Model Version 2. Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493,

5. Wu, X., Y. M. Okumura, P. N. DiNezio, S. G. Yeager, and C. Deser, 2022: The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Bias in CESM1 and its Influence on ENSO Forecasts. J. Climate, 35, 3261–3277,


4. Wu, X., Y. M. Okumura, C. Deser, and P. N. DiNezio, 2021: Two-year Dynamical Predictions of ENSO Event Duration during 1954–2015. J. Climate. 34, 4069–4087,

3. Wu, X., Y. M. Okumura, and P. N. DiNezio, 2021: Predictability of El Niño Duration based on the Onset Timing. J. Climate. 34, 1351–1366,


2. Wu, X., Y. M. Okumura, and P. N. DiNezio, 2019: What Controls the Duration of El Niño and La Niña Events? J. Climate, 32, 5941–5965, 

1. Okumura, Y. M., T. Sun, and X. Wu, 2017: Asymmetric Modulation of El Niño and La Niña and the Linkage to Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability. J. Climate, 30, 4705–4733,

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