I study seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and predictability using simulations and initialized forecasts conducted with earth system models.
ENSO Dynamics and Multiyear Predictability
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events cause episodic warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) of the tropical Pacific and affect global weather patterns via atmospheric teleconnections. ENSO events that last multiple years can prolong and exacerbate their climate impacts. My past research examined the dynamics, predictability, and prediction skill of the duration of ENSO events based on diagnostic analyses, perfect model prediction, and hindcasts of past events.
Pacific Decadal Variability and Predictability
Decadal climate variability of the Pacific Ocean has significant impacts on global hydroclimate, marine ecosystems, and the rate of global warming. Unfortunately, current decadal prediction skill in the Pacific Ocean remains remarkably low, leading to significant uncertainties in predicting near-term global climate. I have been investigating the factors and processes that govern the decadal prediction skill and predictability in the Pacific, including volcanic forcing and oceanic mechanisms.
Tropical Hydroclimate Changes during Abrupt Climate Event
Paleoclimate data show global temperature patterns and hydroclimate changes during intervals when the North Atlantic cools, particularly during the most recent Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 17-15 ka). We combine ~200 paleoclimate data records and 15 model simulations to investigate oceanic and atmospheric processes responsible for the tropical rainfall changes during the HS1.